SAO PAULO – Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop is forecast to decline by between 3% to 6.4% versus the previous cycle, mostly due to dry weather in 2024, according to two estimates published by different banks on Tuesday.
Following a crop tour, Dutch bank Rabobank forecast Brazil’s coffee output in the 2025/26 cycle would drop 6.4% to 62.8 million 60-kilogram bags, below the 67.1 million bags it forecast in the 2024/25 crop.
Brazil’s arabica coffee production is expected to decline significantly by 13.6% to around 38 million bags, Rabobank said, while robusta output is expected to offset some arabica underperformance by growing 7.3% to reach a record 24.7 million bags.
“The dry weather in 2024 significantly affected flowering and, consequently, arabica coffee production. However, excellent yields are estimated for robusta coffee, despite a pessimistic outlook for the state of Rondonia,” Rabobank said.
Bank Itau BBA held its coffee production forecast at 64.4 million bags.
The estimate is 3% lower than the Brazilian coffee output of 66.4 million bags for the 2024/25 cycle reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which the bank used as its comparative base.
“We continue to expect a 10% reduction in arabica production, to 40.9 million bags, and a 12% increase in robusta, totaling 23.5 million bags,” the bank said.
Harvesting of conilon coffee beans – a variety of robusta – for the 2025/26 crop has begun in some areas of Brazil’s Espirito Santo and Bahia states, the Cooabriel cooperative said.
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