NEW YORK -Citigroup’s Chief Economist Nathan Sheets said on Tuesday the U.S. has a 40% to 45% chance of recession as the economy suffers the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on China and other trading partners.

Sheets expects GDP to grow in the second quarter, pushed by consumers rushing to make purchases ahead of tariffs coming into effect. The largest impact on U.S. growth is expected during the second half of the year, Sheets told clients in a conference call.

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